Black Swans

My Idiot Son-in-law

 

Jared Kushner blurts-out a well 

known disaster reference to
 describe his Führer -in-law

Jared Kushner called Trump a Black Swan the other day. Jared doesn't speak much in public but every time he does we discover why. The guy who developed the theory describes a Black Swan as:

1. An event which is a surprise to the observer because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility.
2. An event which has a major effect and extreme impact.
3. After the event occurs, it is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could have been expected; that is, the relevant data were available but unaccounted for in risk mitigation (emphasis added) programs.

Unlike most of us who first became familiar with the term in connection with the financial crisis in the Zeros, Jared probably learned about Black Swan Theory at Harvard. Proving up that buying your way into Harvard may make you successful, but it won't make you smart. Some recent events widely described as Black Swans include:

• The Asian financial crisis

• The Dot Com crash

• 9/11

• The European sovereign debt crisis
• 
  
• The Great Recession

• The Fukushima nuclear disaster

• The 2014 oil crisis

• The 2015 Black Monday

• Brexit

The special advisor to the President of the United States has mentioned his principal in the context of nuclear disasters, financial crises, and the existentially horrifying films of Darren Aronofsky. Maybe he is the brains behind Jarvanka?

Pundits trot out the Black Swan motif when something they never thought would happen - like Trump - happens. These are never good things. Unbeknownst to Kushner, there are few if any instances in the record where the term Black Swan is connected to a positive event. Thus has Bonnie Prince Jared, idiot-savant, perfectly distilled Trump's presidency.