The Yield Curve

Trump Forever
Never Trump

I vote the man!
Wonderful Trouble

The classic convergence of long and short term rates on US Treasuries known as the 'yield curve inflection' has begun to manifest in the data. I am not stupid and thus don't believe Trump has anything to do with this, just as he had nothing to do with the Dow's sharp rise - or fall. But I am delighted that we will very likely end the longest post war expansion yet right around the time of the New Hampshire primary. It's probably going to be a bad recession. I can't wait! Do I sound like a nihilist?  


Judging by the rally rats he attracts, most in Trump's thrall (I avoid the phrase 'basket of deplorables' to describe the vaunted Trump Base and instead prefer the classic 'basket case') by and large have very little history of altering their behavior and actions based on events which occur outside themselves. Most of the 40% of the population who support Trump exhibit the same economic and political behavior (and for the most part, experience the same results) no matter who is president. They are inspired by Trump and are (like Obama's basket cases) rendered hopeful as a result of his leadership. These folks are slow to change behavior or react to events in a rational and not emotional way.  They are extremely cautious regarding predicted change and seldom plan for it. These people are generally swept up by economic and political events, largely unable to respond to them in a way which creates advantage. It really wouldn't matter in practical terms to them if Jesus or a chimpanzee were president. They are described as 'alienated' from the system. They would be alienated from a system they themselves designed within a generation. Because it would evolve, and this would alarm them.

Then there is the  group who do attempt to change behaviors in a logical way to pursue advantage, to remediate losses based on their read of economic and political events. Somewhere around 80% of people who fall into this category do not support Trump. They are not immune from falling prey to their emotions, but they do not do so in a default manner. This group is simply in risk management mode and has been since January of last year. They watch things like the US Treasury debt yield curve and not Sean Hannity. They'll take a few gains on the Trump Bump in the Dow instead of watching it go up and then down like a game show metric.  These are people who certainly change behaviors in response to Trump but only tactically, to manage the risk. They are in more of a boxing match than a military campaign. 

Who's left for Trump to influence? Just two groups: the media and the international community. The former don't matter much ultimately and the latter represent a danger that Trump does not possess the suppleness of intellect to understand. America has a lot of really close friends in the world who are very helpful in accomplishing things like stability and peace, not to mention supporting the myth of 'American Exceptionalism' and generally being complicit in our hegemony. These are or at least were some very, very, very good friends. There is a lot of backscratching under the bridge between us. (Note: mixed metaphor, like skateboarding, is not a crime.)  Close friends get in arguments all the time. It's fairly rare for them to haul off and sucker punch each other in the face and draw blood. I've seen it happen, and I've even seen the friends mend the relationship.  But it's never the same.

I've also seen people blow off a lot of their friends suddenly or start treating them like doormats. If these people then start hanging around with murderers, thieves and other bad kids, you can usually fairly accurately predict a substance abuse issue. But Trump doesn't drink and although he certainly acts the part, those around him swear he doesn't take dope.

That leaves psychosis. I didn't do a psychiatric residency, but I am a reformed drunk. As such I've only got a half-assed read on the situation but you don't need a psychiatrist to tell you the guy who just walked in the bar with an AR-15 is dangerous.

Trump's simplistic view of things (Hurray for Me! Fuck You!) was prevalent for a long time in world history. The atavistic pull to cheer on this view is strong and hard wired. Perhaps we have made fools of ourselves, we bleeding heart idiot liberals positing this romantic, millennial notion of the 'Post War World'. A world in which Hurray for Me thinking is tempered, and arguments between friends don't turn into juvenile shouting matches which turn into broken relationships which turned into wars at some point. Maybe this 70 year interlude of relative sanity was a cruel mirage, an aberration. And maybe Trump is the shibboleth who will lead us back into the chaos and horror of 7th century Europe.

Only this time we'll have computers, lasers, A.I. and nukes to spice it up a bit.


*   *   *
One-third of the country would support the idea of a two front war with Canada and Mexico with full theatre nuclear engagement if Trump pimped the idea at a few rust-belt rallies. One-half the country would support the idea of invoking the 25th amendment because they believe the guy is completely fucking bananas, refuses to take his medication, and think of him in political terms as a sex offender wandering around the playground of a Montessori school. 

If you're following the math and wondering what the other 17% of the people are thinking. Well, those are the folks who idiotically call themselves Independents. These cheery, ill informed citizens take a close look at things, evaluate the situation, and then "Vote on the man! Not the Party." Obviously they know what they're doing - this the block of voters who gave us both Jimmy Carter and Donald Trump.


HEY! You think I'm kidding about that yield curve thing?  Swim around in these numbers and see what you come up with.  I'm happy to answer questions. 


Date1 Mo2 Mo3 Mo6 Mo1 Yr2 Yr3 Yr5 Yr7 Yr10 Yr20 Yr30 Yr
01/02/181.29N/A1.441.611.831.922.012.252.382.462.642.81
01/03/181.29N/A1.411.591.811.942.022.252.372.442.622.78
01/04/181.28N/A1.411.601.821.962.052.272.382.462.622.79
01/05/181.27N/A1.391.581.801.962.062.292.402.472.642.81
01/08/181.30N/A1.451.601.791.962.072.292.412.492.652.81
01/09/181.27N/A1.441.601.781.982.092.332.462.552.722.88
01/10/181.31N/A1.421.591.781.982.082.322.472.552.732.88
01/11/181.32N/A1.431.581.771.982.092.322.462.542.722.91
01/12/181.31N/A1.431.591.781.992.122.352.482.552.712.85
01/16/181.33N/A1.451.631.792.032.122.362.482.542.692.83
01/17/181.31N/A1.441.631.792.052.152.392.512.572.712.84
01/18/181.29N/A1.451.631.792.052.172.432.552.622.772.90
01/19/181.28N/A1.441.621.792.062.202.452.572.642.782.91
01/22/181.27N/A1.441.651.792.082.212.462.592.662.792.93
01/23/181.26N/A1.441.631.782.062.182.432.552.632.772.90
01/24/181.25N/A1.431.631.792.082.202.432.572.652.802.93
01/25/181.23N/A1.421.641.802.082.202.412.552.632.762.89
01/26/181.24N/A1.411.641.802.132.242.472.602.662.792.91
01/29/181.28N/A1.441.661.802.112.262.492.632.702.822.94
01/30/181.49N/A1.441.661.882.132.272.512.652.732.862.98
01/31/181.43N/A1.461.661.902.142.292.522.662.722.832.95
02/01/181.41N/A1.481.641.892.162.332.562.722.782.903.01
02/02/181.40N/A1.481.651.882.152.332.582.762.842.973.08
02/05/181.40N/A1.511.671.852.082.252.502.682.772.923.04
02/06/181.48N/A1.521.691.872.102.302.522.702.792.943.06
02/07/181.36N/A1.551.731.912.152.332.572.752.843.013.12
02/08/181.32N/A1.551.731.912.132.322.572.762.853.033.14
02/09/181.31N/A1.551.731.892.052.262.522.722.833.023.14
02/12/181.35N/A1.621.821.932.092.302.562.772.863.023.14
02/13/181.34N/A1.591.801.952.102.302.542.742.832.993.11
02/14/181.32N/A1.581.811.982.172.402.652.842.913.073.18
02/15/181.30N/A1.581.821.992.192.402.652.832.903.043.15
02/16/181.35N/A1.621.832.002.212.382.632.812.873.023.13
02/20/181.39N/A1.661.872.012.252.402.652.812.883.043.15
02/21/181.40N/A1.641.852.032.262.442.692.862.943.113.22
02/22/181.34N/A1.631.842.022.252.422.662.842.923.093.21
02/23/181.38N/A1.641.852.022.252.392.622.792.883.043.16
02/26/181.39N/A1.661.872.032.222.372.602.772.863.033.15
02/27/181.49N/A1.661.872.082.272.432.672.832.903.063.17
02/28/181.50N/A1.651.862.072.252.422.652.802.873.023.13
03/01/181.50N/A1.631.852.052.222.362.582.742.812.973.09
03/02/181.50N/A1.651.862.062.252.402.632.792.863.023.14
03/05/181.53N/A1.701.862.062.242.412.652.812.883.043.16
03/06/181.56N/A1.681.872.062.252.422.652.812.883.033.14
03/07/181.57N/A1.681.872.052.252.422.652.812.893.043.15
03/08/181.57N/A1.671.892.052.252.422.632.792.863.013.13
03/09/181.57N/A1.671.892.032.272.452.652.822.903.043.16
03/12/181.60N/A1.711.892.052.272.432.642.792.873.003.13
03/13/181.64N/A1.731.902.032.262.412.622.772.842.983.10
03/14/181.71N/A1.761.942.052.262.412.612.752.812.943.05
03/15/181.70N/A1.771.952.072.292.422.622.762.822.943.05
03/16/181.71N/A1.781.962.082.312.442.652.782.852.963.08
03/19/181.70N/A1.801.992.082.312.452.652.782.852.973.09
03/20/181.76N/A1.811.972.082.342.492.692.822.893.013.12
03/21/181.71N/A1.741.952.062.312.462.692.822.893.013.12
03/22/181.67N/A1.721.952.052.292.432.632.762.832.943.06
03/23/181.69N/A1.741.922.042.282.412.612.742.822.943.06
03/26/181.71N/A1.791.942.062.332.442.642.782.852.963.08
03/27/181.69N/A1.771.932.102.262.392.582.702.782.903.03
03/28/181.65N/A1.731.952.122.282.412.592.722.772.893.01
03/29/181.63N/A1.731.932.092.272.392.562.682.742.852.97
04/02/181.68N/A1.771.922.082.252.372.552.672.732.852.97
04/03/181.70N/A1.751.922.092.282.412.602.732.792.903.02
04/04/181.67N/A1.711.902.072.282.422.612.732.792.913.03
04/05/181.67N/A1.721.932.072.302.452.642.762.832.953.07
04/06/181.68N/A1.731.912.062.272.402.582.702.772.893.01
04/09/181.67N/A1.761.932.082.292.432.602.722.782.893.02
04/10/181.63N/A1.741.932.092.322.452.622.742.802.893.02
04/11/181.64N/A1.731.952.092.322.452.622.722.792.872.99
04/12/181.65N/A1.751.952.112.342.492.672.782.832.923.05
04/13/181.64N/A1.761.972.122.372.512.672.772.822.913.03
04/16/181.64N/A1.791.982.122.392.522.692.782.832.913.03
04/17/181.68N/A1.802.022.162.412.522.682.772.822.893.00
04/18/181.67N/A1.812.012.172.422.572.732.832.872.953.06
04/19/181.67N/A1.822.012.212.442.582.772.872.923.013.11
04/20/181.65N/A1.812.012.222.462.622.802.912.963.043.14
04/23/181.69N/A1.872.042.252.492.642.832.942.983.053.15
04/24/181.70N/A1.872.052.252.482.632.832.953.003.083.18
04/25/181.65N/A1.852.032.262.492.642.842.973.033.123.21
04/26/181.62N/A1.822.022.252.492.632.822.953.003.083.18
04/27/181.62N/A1.822.022.242.492.622.802.922.963.033.13
04/30/181.65N/A1.872.042.242.492.622.792.912.953.013.11
05/01/181.68N/A1.852.052.262.502.662.822.932.973.033.13
05/02/181.69N/A1.842.032.242.492.642.802.922.973.043.14
05/03/181.68N/A1.842.022.242.492.622.782.902.943.023.12
05/04/181.67N/A1.842.032.242.512.632.782.902.953.023.12
05/07/181.69N/A1.862.052.252.492.642.782.902.953.023.12
05/08/181.69N/A1.872.052.262.512.662.812.932.973.043.13
05/09/181.68N/A1.882.052.272.542.682.842.963.003.073.16
05/10/181.69N/A1.902.052.272.542.692.832.942.973.043.12
05/11/181.68N/A1.922.062.282.542.692.842.942.973.033.10
05/14/181.70N/A1.932.092.282.552.702.852.963.003.063.13
05/15/181.69N/A1.922.092.312.582.752.923.043.083.143.20
05/16/181.69N/A1.922.092.322.582.762.943.053.093.163.21
05/17/181.70N/A1.922.102.322.572.752.943.073.113.193.25
05/18/181.68N/A1.912.092.322.552.712.903.023.063.143.20
05/21/181.71N/A1.932.142.352.582.732.903.023.063.133.20
05/22/181.73N/A1.932.132.342.592.732.903.023.063.143.21
05/23/181.76N/A1.922.112.292.532.672.832.953.013.093.17
05/24/181.74N/A1.912.092.282.502.652.822.932.983.063.13
05/25/181.70N/A1.902.072.272.482.602.762.882.933.013.09
05/29/181.77N/A1.932.062.172.322.432.582.712.772.872.96
05/30/181.77N/A1.942.082.232.422.532.672.792.842.933.01
05/31/181.76N/A1.932.082.232.402.542.682.782.832.913.00
06/01/181.74N/A1.922.102.282.472.612.742.852.892.963.04
06/04/181.77N/A1.942.132.302.522.642.782.892.943.003.08
06/05/181.82N/A1.942.132.322.492.622.762.872.922.993.07
06/06/181.81N/A1.952.132.322.522.652.812.932.973.053.13
06/07/181.78N/A1.942.122.312.502.632.772.882.933.003.08
06/08/181.78N/A1.932.122.302.502.632.772.882.933.003.08
06/11/181.82N/A1.942.112.322.522.662.802.912.963.023.10
06/12/181.81N/A1.922.102.312.542.672.812.912.963.023.09
06/13/181.82N/A1.942.092.352.592.712.852.952.983.043.10
06/14/181.81N/A1.942.072.352.592.692.812.902.942.993.05
06/15/181.82N/A1.942.072.352.552.682.812.892.932.983.05
06/18/181.84N/A1.942.132.352.562.672.802.892.922.983.05
06/19/181.85N/A1.942.132.342.542.642.772.842.892.953.02
06/20/181.85N/A1.942.142.362.562.672.802.892.932.993.06
06/21/181.85N/A1.942.122.342.562.652.772.862.902.973.04
06/22/181.83N/A1.932.112.332.562.652.772.862.902.973.04
06/25/181.80N/A1.932.132.342.542.632.752.832.872.953.02
06/26/181.79N/A1.932.142.332.532.632.752.842.882.953.03
06/27/181.79N/A1.932.102.332.522.592.712.792.832.902.97
06/28/181.76N/A1.932.112.332.522.602.732.812.842.912.97
06/29/181.77N/A1.932.112.332.522.632.732.812.852.912.98
07/02/181.90N/A1.982.142.342.572.652.752.832.872.922.99
07/03/181.91N/A1.982.122.332.532.632.722.792.832.892.96
07/05/181.87N/A1.962.112.322.552.652.742.802.842.882.95
07/06/181.86N/A1.972.132.342.532.642.712.782.822.872.94
07/09/181.87N/A1.982.152.342.572.662.752.822.862.902.96
07/10/181.88N/A1.992.152.362.592.692.772.832.872.912.97
07/11/181.89N/A1.972.142.362.582.672.742.822.852.892.95
07/12/181.89N/A1.982.172.392.602.682.752.832.852.892.95
07/13/181.87N/A1.982.162.372.592.662.732.802.832.872.94
07/16/181.90N/A2.012.192.392.592.672.752.822.852.902.96
07/17/181.93N/A2.022.192.392.622.692.762.832.862.912.97
07/18/181.90N/A2.002.172.432.602.692.772.842.882.932.99
07/19/181.89N/A2.002.162.402.602.672.742.812.842.902.96
07/20/181.86N/A1.992.162.412.602.682.772.852.892.963.03
07/23/181.88N/A1.992.192.422.642.722.832.922.963.043.10
07/24/181.92N/A2.022.192.422.632.742.832.912.953.023.08
07/25/181.90N/A2.012.202.422.662.742.822.902.943.003.06
07/26/181.89N/A1.992.192.412.692.782.862.952.983.053.10
07/27/181.90N/A2.002.202.432.672.762.842.922.963.033.09
07/30/181.91N/A2.042.212.432.662.772.852.942.983.053.11
07/31/181.94N/A2.032.212.442.672.772.852.922.963.033.08
08/01/181.93N/A2.032.222.452.672.782.872.963.003.073.13
08/02/181.89N/A2.022.222.452.662.762.852.932.983.063.12
08/03/181.90N/A2.012.232.432.632.742.822.912.953.033.09
08/06/181.92N/A2.052.232.442.642.732.802.892.943.023.08
08/07/181.96N/A2.062.232.452.682.762.842.922.983.063.12
08/08/181.93N/A2.062.242.442.682.772.832.922.963.053.12
08/09/181.91N/A2.062.252.442.642.742.802.892.933.013.08
08/10/181.92N/A2.052.232.422.612.682.752.822.872.963.03
08/13/181.93N/A2.062.222.422.612.682.752.822.882.973.05
08/14/181.96N/A2.082.252.442.632.712.772.842.892.983.06
08/15/181.96N/A2.072.232.452.612.682.732.812.862.953.03
08/16/181.96N/A2.072.242.452.632.702.752.822.872.953.03
08/17/181.95N/A2.052.242.442.612.682.752.822.872.953.03
08/20/181.93N/A2.062.252.432.602.652.702.772.822.912.99
08/21/181.94N/A2.082.252.452.612.672.732.802.852.933.00
08/22/181.95N/A2.092.242.432.602.652.702.772.822.912.99
08/23/181.94N/A2.082.232.432.612.662.722.782.822.902.97
08/24/181.95N/A2.092.252.442.632.682.722.782.822.892.97
08/27/181.96N/A2.122.252.472.672.702.742.812.852.923.00
08/28/181.96N/A2.132.282.472.672.732.772.842.882.963.03
08/29/181.97N/A2.132.282.482.672.752.782.852.892.963.02
08/30/181.97N/A2.112.282.472.642.722.752.822.862.933.00
08/31/181.95N/A2.112.282.462.622.702.742.812.862.953.02
09/04/182.00N/A2.132.292.492.662.732.782.852.902.993.07
09/05/182.00N/A2.142.302.492.662.722.772.852.903.003.08
09/06/181.98N/A2.132.302.502.642.712.762.832.882.983.06
09/07/181.98N/A2.142.302.532.712.782.822.892.943.033.11
09/10/181.98N/A2.142.322.542.732.782.832.892.943.023.09
09/11/182.02N/A2.152.312.552.762.832.872.942.983.063.13
09/12/182.01N/A2.162.332.562.742.822.872.932.973.043.11
09/13/182.01N/A2.152.332.552.762.832.872.932.973.043.11
09/14/182.02N/A2.162.332.562.782.852.902.962.993.073.13
09/17/182.02N/A2.162.352.572.782.852.892.962.993.073.13
09/18/182.05N/A2.172.362.582.812.882.943.013.053.143.20
09/19/182.03N/A2.162.362.582.812.892.963.043.083.163.23
09/20/182.03N/A2.172.372.582.812.892.963.033.073.153.21
09/21/182.05N/A2.182.382.582.812.892.953.033.073.143.20
09/24/182.07N/A2.222.382.602.832.892.963.043.083.153.21
09/25/182.12N/A2.212.382.592.832.912.993.063.103.173.23
09/26/182.11N/A2.202.372.582.832.892.963.023.063.143.19
09/27/182.10N/A2.182.372.582.832.892.963.023.063.133.19
09/28/182.12N/A2.192.362.592.812.882.943.013.053.133.19
10/01/182.13N/A2.232.402.602.822.902.963.043.093.183.24
10/02/182.14N/A2.232.412.612.822.882.943.013.053.143.20
10/03/182.15N/A2.232.412.622.852.943.023.103.153.243.30
10/04/182.16N/A2.222.422.632.872.973.053.143.193.293.35
10/05/182.15N/A2.232.412.642.882.993.073.183.233.343.40
10/09/182.17N/A2.252.462.652.882.983.053.153.213.303.37
10/10/182.18N/A2.272.452.672.882.973.053.153.223.333.39
10/11/182.14N/A2.272.442.662.852.943.003.093.143.253.32
10/12/182.14N/A2.282.442.662.852.933.003.093.153.253.32
10/15/182.17N/A2.312.472.672.852.943.013.103.163.273.34
10/16/182.192.222.302.462.662.872.953.023.103.163.263.32
10/17/182.202.232.312.472.662.892.973.043.133.193.293.35
10/18/182.192.232.322.472.672.872.953.033.113.173.283.36
10/19/182.192.232.312.482.672.922.993.053.143.203.313.38
10/22/182.182.252.342.492.682.922.993.053.133.203.313.38
10/23/182.212.232.332.482.672.892.953.013.103.173.293.37
10/24/182.202.232.342.472.642.842.892.943.023.103.243.33
10/25/182.192.242.342.472.662.862.922.983.073.143.273.35
10/26/182.162.212.332.472.632.812.852.913.003.083.233.32
10/29/182.172.212.342.492.642.812.862.913.003.083.233.33
10/30/182.212.262.332.482.662.842.902.943.033.123.263.36
10/31/182.202.262.342.492.692.872.932.983.073.153.303.39
11/01/182.212.282.322.492.672.842.912.963.063.143.293.38
11/02/182.192.282.332.502.702.912.983.043.133.223.373.46
11/05/182.202.292.362.512.712.912.993.033.123.203.343.43
11/06/182.232.292.352.522.722.933.013.053.143.223.353.43
11/07/182.232.292.372.512.742.963.033.073.153.223.353.43
11/08/182.212.292.352.522.742.983.053.093.173.243.363.43
11/09/182.212.302.362.522.732.943.013.053.133.193.323.40
11/13/182.242.322.382.532.722.892.952.993.073.143.283.36
11/14/182.242.332.382.522.712.862.922.953.043.123.263.35
11/15/182.202.322.372.512.702.862.912.943.023.113.273.36
11/16/182.212.312.362.502.682.812.852.902.993.083.233.33
11/19/182.232.322.382.522.662.792.822.872.973.063.223.32
11/20/182.232.352.392.512.672.792.832.882.973.063.223.31
11/21/182.252.342.412.522.672.812.842.892.983.063.223.31
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