Hawaiian w/ Hat on Backwards

Haole w/ Lots-O-Leis

BOOOOM  SHAKA - LAKA!

Political Surprises Come in all Flavors

and all Frequencies Along the Political Spectrum - 
From Trump to Atay.

It will be interesting to see how newly elected Maui County Councilpersons Alika Atay and his confederates from the nativist Shaka Ohana slate will perform in the realpolitik shark cage up on the eighth floor in Wailuku. Reform movement leaders who attain elective office with slim pluralities and whisper thin majorities in primary and general elections face unique challenges. And opportunities. Activists possessed of limited technical political skills frequently end up outmaneuvered by old guard back-roomers.  

Or sometimes... they turn out to be Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Mr. Atay - perhaps in all seriousness - interprets his winning margin of 808 votes (808 is Hawaii's area code) as an indication of the power of Pule, the spirit of Aloha and the Grace of Pele. The 808 number is certainly interesting, but a clearer eyed appraisal might simply indicate a razor thin victory by a political novice - and clear evidence that Jung was a keen observer of the Universe...

But that's just my view.  And you know me . . . 

That game the big boys and girls play in the actual councils of government is very different than the activity of stirring up the base with spumous emotional appeals at friendly rallies during campaign season. (The Orange One will soon learn this lesson - hopefully without incinerating the planet and thus making Mr. Atay's agenda superfluous). Without a majority of the seats at council, Alika will need to bring a deft touch to the game to effect the kind of sweeping change he envisions.  Clever sloganeering ('Nuf Already!' 'Make America Great Again!') may occasionally win elections - and move the red merch.  Effective governing requires other types of competencies.

That said, I certainly wish Mr. Atay (and Mr. Trump for that matter) much luck in effectively and smartly governing. 

I am from a political clan back in Texas and admit a tendency to side with the status quo. Mostly this is an artifact of having been exposed to these things early - and often - which will cause one to internalize certain timeless political lessons. 

One of those lessons is that those in power tend to stay in power. Forming relationships with them generally is the best path to realizing your political goals - whatever those goals may be. In that regard I was a supporter of Don Couch in the council race. However, I also backed first timer Deidre Tegarden in her bid for the Hawaii state house.

Don and Deidre are certainly not the first unsuccessful candidates I've backed. But it sure was disappointing to have my initial political wagers in Maui come up empty; one by a nose, one by a bit more than a nose.  Don is a nice guy. Deidre is terrific. As it turns out - neither will be representing me. Alika and his Ohana are watching out for my interests now.  And I'm OK with that too.

When reform candidates win it takes another cycle or two (if they manage to hold power) to cement relationships with the non-activist political class.  In the interim, that class tends to wait... and watch... and evaluate. One of the greatest challenges Alika faces is keeping his base active and energized in order to (i) maintain political momentum to pursue his agenda, and; (ii) win a second term.

Alika and the Shakas will likely struggle to pull off i and ii above - a common problem w/ nascent popular movements when striking electoral gold. (Ask the Tea Party.) Or they may move ahead like a juggernaut and take over the council. Either way, the political alligators (Monsanto people, Starwood people, Matson people, A&B people . . . the Mayor) and the numerous other top predators in the swamp will be working to surround and eat them. Or simply co-opt Atay. Boy have I seen this happen. I am told - but have no first hand knowledge of this - that the political odyssey of Mayor Arakawa is instructive in that regard.

One piece of advice I can give (acknowledging that no one asked) is to make certain you write checks to those whom you wish to win or continue to hold office.  There is no other form of political activism which has proven more effective.

*  *  *